"The whole is more intelligent than the individual"
Prediction markets profit from the informational efficiency of markets and combines this with the wisdom of the crowds. Predictions resulting from these markets and often more precise and timelier than comparable prediction instruments, like surveys or votes. These techniques have been used in multiple projects with partners in industry and academia in a number research areas. Forecasts have been made to predict the outcomes of football matches (soccer), climate change and innovation projects. The most recent project, currently in the planing phase, is the Economic Indicator Market (EIX) in cooperation with the IW Cologne, designed to predict German economic development.

Contact: Christof Weinhardt, Stephan Stathel, Florian Teschner
Link: www.eix-market.de

First results of the EIX prediction market (08.12.) As reported before, the IM started the prediction market for economic indicators (www.eix-market.de) in cooperation with the newspaper Handelsblatt and the “Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln” (IW). Already in the first month the participants forecasted the correct gross domestic product and gross capital formation. An increasing number of visitors on the homepage show the brisk demand for the prediction market. The following organisations participate in the Handelsblatt prediction market: The economic and financial newspaper Handelsblatt, the “Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln” (IW), the Institute of Information Systems and Management (IISM) and the “Forschungszentrum Informatik” (FZI).   more